|December 2018 Market Update |
- Around the Neighborhood
- Video Introduction
- Housing Stats – CliffsNotes Version
- My 2019 Forecast
- Coming Soon and Active Listings
- Video Surprise (just like the old days!
Video Introduction (click photo to view )
Around the Neighborhood
Peace, Love & Joy
from my family to yours!
| At this time of year we often reflect upon the year past and the year ahead. As I reflect upon 2018, I am filled with gratitude for the health and happiness of my family and the opportunity to work with fantastic people in a business that impacts the lives of my clients and friends in a very positive way. The purchase or sale of real estate typically happens at extremely important times in one’s life. Those times may be a first-time home purchase, the purchase of a move-up home, the sale of a home one raised their family in, the purchase of a smaller retirement home, or the sale of a home of a parent that has passed. Some sales or happy, other’s are not. And, regardless of the reason for the purchase or sale, I’m extremely honored to be a part of that process. Thank you for that trusting me with such an important thing!|
|Housing Stats – CliffsNotes Version |
Interest Rates – Here’s a little history…10 years ago, the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.0%, 6.8% 20 years ago and 10.4% 30 years ago. Freddie Mac recently reported the 30-year fixed rate is at its highest average in seven years, reaching 4.9%. While rates are rising, they are still very low from a historical context.
Home Sales – Continuing the trend, Closed Sales fell 19.6% and 16.6% and homes in escrow fell 11.1% and 28.3% for Detached and Attached homes, respectively. I believe we will see a reversal of this trend shortly. For more on that, see my predictions for 2019.
Home Prices – Even though we see, hear and read the market is slowing, the Median Sales Price was up 3.6% in November to $725,000 for Detached homes and decreased 0.6% to $434,000 for Attached homes.
Inventory – Homes are taking longer to sell and days on market have increased dramatically over the past year. In most zip codes around San Diego County, we are seeing 2-3 times the amount of homes available compared to the same time last year.
|My 2019 Forecast |
| Most Realtors are talking about a shifting market and frankly, a lot of that talk isn’t very positive. This tone is reinforced by the media publishing headlines like “Housing Bubble 2.0 is here” and “Protect Yourself From the Next Crash.” However, economic indicators don’t indicate a looming crash. Some of you may know I taught undergraduate and graduate-level college macroeconomics for almost 10 years so it’s in my nature to keep a closer eye to the actual indicators rather than the headlines. While housing affordability is low, especially here in San Diego, the economy is relatively healthy. In short, I expect the 2019 real estate market to be more of a “normal” real estate market. “Normal” is a market of 4-6 months of housing inventory and one that is more balanced between buyers and sellers. Will it feel slower? Absolutely! But keep in mind, we are coming off a really hot seller’s market and those just don’t last forever.|
Rates – Most authorities are predicting the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to average between 4.8% and 5.3% in 2019. I’m seeing rates between 4.75% and 5.25% currently depending on credit and other factors. That said, I’d expect we’ll see a slight tick up in rates over the year. I don’t expect rates to shoot up dramatically. By year-end, I think the days of interest rates under 5% will be a thing of the past.
Sales – Home sales numbers have been falling as noted earlier in this email. However, contrary to most people I talk to and articles I read, I believe this trend will reverse in 2019. Why will more homes be sold in the face of rising interest rates and slower home sales? Two words…motivated sellers. There are a large number of home sellers (think Baby Boomers) on the sidelines who haven’t sold for several reasons. One concern that has been a theme over the last few years is that sellers are worried they won’t be able to find a replacement home because of the lack of homes available. That’s all going to change next year. Not only will rising inventory create a lot more choice for sellers, but the larger inventory will also see buyers with a bit more leverage and, in turn, we’ll see an increase in contingent offers. In other words, there will be an increase in sellers shopping for and finding their next home, opening escrow on their purchase, and then putting their current home on the market. I believe this shift in dynamic will unlock a significant amount housing supply and, in turn, transaction levels will increase over the 2018 levels.
Prices – All things remaining equal, rising supply will put downward pressure on rising prices. Believe it or not, prices are still rising! I believe 2019 will be a year of little price gains in real estate. There it is short and sweet! At the same time, barring a large shock to the macro-economy, I don’t see material price decreases this year.
|Listings *Coming Soon* |
- 3-Bed, 2-Bath, 1,622 SF home on 1/2-acre lot in east Escondido, mid-$500k.
- 4-Bed, 2-Bath 2,200 SF beach-front townhome on the sand in Oceanside, low-$2-million
- 4-Bed, 4-Bath, 4,000 SF single-level home, tennis/sport court, award-winning vineyard in Rancho Santa Fe, mid-$3-million
- 3-Bed, 2.5-Bath, 1,766 SF home in north Escondido, low-$500k
- 25-acre Ranch in east Escondido, low-$1-million
- 100+-acre ranch in east Escondido, mid-$2-million
Please contact me for additional details on any of the properties above.
|Active Listings |
* click above icons for property details
Pending Listings (Escrows)
34677 Almond St
Wildomar, CA 92595
Are you considering making a move in 2019?
Give me a call, text, e-mail, or instant message, and let’s start strategizing on making that move smartly and smoothly!
|Brought to you by KW Research. For additional graphs and details, please see the This Month in Real Estate PowerPoint Report.The opinions expressed in This Month in Real Estate are intended to supplement opinions on real estate expressed by local and national media, local real estate agents and other expert sources. You should not treat any opinion expressed on This Month in Real Estate as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. Keller Williams Realty, Inc., does not guarantee and is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of information, and provides said information without warranties of any kind. All information presented herein is intended and should be used for educational purposes only. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. All investments involve some degree of risk. Keller Williams Realty, Inc., will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information contained in This Month in Real Estate. |